Demonetzation: Will it decide India’s fate?

Dear Readers,

This is our first independent post. Almost a month has passed and still the whole concept of demonetization is not clear. Supporters of the same are pushing hard to make it a success and opponents are cursing government for this action.

A few scholars had presented their independent views that we support and could be understood in normal parlance:

1. The move is definitely good but is it for curbing the black money in circulation or the cash money that holds back the economy in general? Don’t forget the crisis of 2007-08 when the entire world was bleeding through recession and we somehow managed to sustain.

2. The implementation that we have seen so far by the GOI is very poor. There is lack of infrastructure, sufficient new currency, unclear guidelines for banking and most importantly poor administration and accountability.

3. As stated by Dr. Singh, this move, if not properly managed, will lead to deteriorate the image of the central bank, globally.

4. A few school of thoughts also believed that black money was never present in the form of currency but was parked in other precious assets such as gold, diamonds and land (also). To some extent we also believe in the same. As per an international study, Indians have bought enormous quantities of gold in the past two decades, of which major portion was bullion and not jewelry.

5. There is another point which needs attention. As per the RBI, there was Rs. 14.18 lakh crore in circulation in the form of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes when its demonetization was announced on November 8th. By 5th of December, it was expected that Rs. 11 lakh crore has already been deposited in the system. With little less than a month left for closure, this raises question whether the whole exercise was needed at all in the first place. PLEASE NOTE: there are two situations here:

a. If there will be more deposits then expected, does it indicate that there was no black money at all ?

b. If there will be more deposits then expected by the central bank (say the total money deposited in the form of banned notes reaches to Rs. 15 lakh crores), who will bear the liability (of Rs. 1 lakh crores apprx).

Its too early to say for its success but we all wish that our country to become a super power on the world map. And all we expect that this shouldn’t turn out to be a mere political gimmick.

Cheers !!